2027: Will El-Rufai’s Detention Backfire On APC Or Boost ADC In 2027?

The former Kaduna State governor, Nasir El-Rufai, whose defection to the African Democratic Congress (ADC) sent shockwaves through the corridors of power, finds himself fighting for bail due to legal battles involving the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC) and the Department of State Services (DSS) following allegations of financial misconduct to wiretapping.

With the 2027 general elections drawing closer, a central question dominates political discourse: will El-Rufai’s detention backfire on the All Progressives Congress (APC) or boost the African Democratic Congress (ADC) chances?

After falling out with the APC and joining the ADC as a formidable vehicle for the coalition, El-Rufai vowed, before his detention, to mobilise massive support in the North to unseat President Bola Tinubu, warning that the country risked severe regression if the APC is re-elected.

With El-Rufai tied down by legal battles and restricted in his public movements, the APC arguably seeks to blunt the ADC’s cutting edge.

However, ADC chieftains have repeatedly warned that the federal government will be held directly accountable for El-Rufai’s well-being in custody, raising alarm that the government plans to keep him in detention until after the 2027 election.

Nevertheless, some political analysts have claimed that if the appellate courts grant him relief, such as favourable rulings on his ongoing bail applications, and he steps out of detention ahead of 2027, the ADC’s victory will be immense.

In an interview with Naija News, political analyst, Jide Ojo, asserted that the detention of El-Rufai is a clear case of anti-corruption accountability and is politically motivated

He said, “It is difficult to pin it down as politically motivated, even though politics is involved to some extent. The first question we should ask is: did he commit those crimes? Was there an embezzlement or misappropriation of Kaduna State funds? Was there a security report against him that denied him the opportunity to serve in this government as a minister? Don’t forget, Tinubu nominated him for a ministerial position, and the Senate refused to clear him because of a security report on him. That in itself, maybe, you could say, is a politically motivated security report.  But those who lived in Kaduna, particularly southern Kaduna, were blunt that El Rufai committed many atrocities during his time as governor. And you know that the Minister of Defence, former Chief of Defence Staff, General Chris Musa, also, in a recent media interview, does not have very kind words for Nigeria’s President, El Rufai. So let me say it’s a mixture of both politics and maybe nemesis, catching up with Mala El Rufai. One aspect of the charges against him was misappropriation of Kaduna State funds.

“But the other aspect concerns his self-conferred crime of tapping into the National Security Advisor’s telephone. When he said that on national TV, I knew there would be consequences.  Because if you said you have a device to tap into the phone of a very high-profile government official like the National Security Advisor, you are going to be asked to come and prove it. How did you acquire that? How did you? You are not a governor anymore. You are a private citizen. You are not in the military. You are not holding any office. And yet you admitted on TV that you tapped into the phone of a serving government official of high rank, like the NSA. Then this definitely warrants investigation and perhaps prosecution.”

Asked if the APC is jittery about El-Rufai’s liberty ahead of the 2027 election, Ojo said, “I don’t agree that it’s APC being jittery. But the issue is this. After that ministerial failure, he left APC and joined SDP around 2024 or early last year. When he joined SDP, he didn’t make any wins. No notable politician, even from Kaduna State, joined him in SDP. He was like a low-ranking member; he was like a fish out of water. APC was like a home to him because he was there at the formation; he played a key role. But because he lost out in that ministerial position, he left out of bitterness and joined SDP.

“When he joined SDP, if it was somebody with clout, you would have seen him join with tons of supporters, maybe serving senators, commissioners, and other high-profile people. But he was just like a fish out of water, he went to SDP. And even when he joined SDP, the SDP leadership was unsettled. He couldn’t make much impact in SDP last year. He decided to join ADC.  Even after he joined ADC, I couldn’t recall any significant moment, or anything that shows he still has the influence to pull within ADC. So for much of this year, he’s been in detention and under prosecution. And do you know that this government was fair to him? Even when he was in detention, and his mother died, the administration allowed him to go and bury his mother. I think they gave him about one week to go and bury his mother.
You know, in other cases, they would not have done that. They would say, it’s the court that detained you. But they gave him an opportunity.

In fact, many people in ADC paid him homage, condoled with him, and stood with him in solidarity.”

Jide Ojo further dismissed the insinuation that El-Rufai’s detention could lead Northerners to generate sentiments against President Tinubu’s re-election.

He stated, “I think El-Rufai is a spent force. Politically, at this point, he’s a spent force. What we eventually saw in Rivers State should have happened first in Kaduna. Uba Sani is his mentee, but the governor got to Kaduna and met an empty treasury.  Tons and tons of debts, and he could not perform. Uba Sani had to come out and say, well, I met an empty treasury and that in itself pitted him against El-Rufai because they felt he could not keep the state secret. Uba Sani betrayed them. So, as of today, Uba Sani has mended fences with all the major opposition elements in Kaduna State. Including the people of Southern Kaduna. President Tinubu has given them federal institutions, appointments, and infrastructure projects. So, when anybody says El-Rufai’s detention won’t impact the APC, I think that’s inconsequential. Even if he’s released. Even if he’s out of detention today. I don’t think Rufai has that magic wand. To dictate what will happen in Kaduna, let alone in Northern Nigeria. He has his own nuisance value, no doubt. He’s an orator. He can talk and mobilise. Since ADC was unveiled as the main opposition party. Tell me significant serving government officials who have joined the ADC. No serving Senator, no member of the House of Representatives and no Minister. So, you know, this is how you know a party that poses a threat.

“ADC, for me, is relying on the name of Atiku.  They believe Atiku still has a magic wand, the kind they think Muhammadu Buhari had between 2003 and 2015. But, I tell you, it’s not the same thing. Atiku Abubakar is in his 70s now. He will be 80 next year. And since he left the presidency in 2007.  How many people has he mentored that they can come up and say, I’m an Atiku man. We are barely 90 days to the next general election. No person, no political heavyweight of note, has identified with ADC. Or with NDC.”

When questioned on the choice of the APC Presidential Campaign Council’s decision to commence their campaign from Kaduna, Ojo said, “So, Kaduna is the political epicentre of Northern Nigeria. Starting there is very strategic because Kaduna has about the third-highest number of registered voters. Kano is another key state. Kasina, another key state. Kebbi is another key state. So, the KKK states are the heavyweight political states where the votes are. That is where Tinubu hopes to harvest a substantial number of votes to return as President of Nigeria. So, it is very strategic.  And even his choice of the campaign director-general of his campaign council is very strategic. Somebody like Abdulaziz Yari, former governor of Zamfara State, is a grassroots man. He served two terms as governor and was a senator. And, you know, he also commands a lot of respect in Northern Nigeria.

“So, I think, so far, for me, APC is getting its politics right. It may not be 100% in terms of how the ordinary citizen perceives APC. Especially in terms of the cost of living crisis. I am not saying that they have gotten the economy right. The economy is what affects you and me.”