2023-2024 Premier League Title Race Is Over? See Pundits’ Favourites

The 2023-2024 English Premier League title race could end up as one of the most dramatic one in Europe as the main contenders for the league title – Manchester City, Liverpool, and Arsenal – have just six league games to go, leaving football enthusiasts making permutations.

After matchday 33, which is the 32nd game for each of the three main contenders for the 2023-2024 Premier League title, Arsenal and Liverpool placed Manchester City in the driving seat of the title race.

The dramatic twist to the race started on Saturday, April 13, when Manchester City smashed Luton Town 5-1 at the Etihad Stadium. Afterward, coach Pep Guardiola and his boys had a perfect weekend when Liverpool lost 1-0 to mid-club Crystal Palace at the Anfield Stadium, and Arsenal cemented the perfect day for City when Aston Villa smashed them 2-0 at the Emirates Stadium on Sunday, April 14.

Following the aforementioned games, Manchester City are currently leading the Premier League title race with two points above second-placed Arsenal and third-placed Liverpool.

After the weekend game, a supercomputer owned by renowned football statistics company, Opta ran 10,000 simulations of the final six games of the season, with City ending up on top in 7000 of them.

This means that Manchester City’s chances of winning the league jumped from 40.6 percent to 70 percent after their win last weekend and the defeats their rivals, Liverpool and Arsenal, suffered in the same weekend.

According to the Supercomputer, Liverpool and Arsenal currently stand no chance of winning the 2023-2024 Premier League campaign. Before matchday 33, Arsenal had a 30.3 percent chance of winning the title but that dropped by 12 percent after their defeat to Aston Villa last weekend to 18.3 percent.

The same fate, if not worse, befell Liverpool as their chance of winning the league after the defeat to Crystal Palace dropped from 29.1 to 11.7 percent which is a massive 17.4 percent percent drop.

Is the 2023-2024 Premier League title race over?

Based on the above statistics, the 2023-2024 Premier League title race seems over with just six games to go. But this is the EPL which is sometimes difficult to predict.

After matchday 33, the manager of Liverpool, Jurgen Klopp, and the manager of Arsenal, Mikel Arteta, declared that the Premier League title race is not over yet.

To answer the question, one needs to pay attention to the precedence of Manchester City. Once they start any Premier League season campaign struggling and then pick up themselves a few months to the end of the season, it is almost impossible to stop them.

Last season was a vivid example of this scenario in which Arsenal were topping the league table until the last two points of the season. Suddenly, the Citizens picked up themselves while Arsenal were dropping points for fun. At the end of the campaign, coach Pep Guardiola’s City emerged victorious.

Interestingly, this season is on the verge of experiencing the same fate. After Arsenal and Liverpool have been swapping the top spot with each other since the turn of 2024, they have both slipped to the point that they have handed the baton to the unstoppable City with 6 games to go. Indeed, there is something about the late rise of Manchester City in the title race that usually sends shivers down the throats of their competitors.

Games that could influence the title race

To further determine whether the 2023-2024 Premier League title race is over or not, we need to look at the games that might heavily influence how the campaign will end for the three contenders.

Well, at this point of the season, there is no longer a less important game but yet, there are games that the contenders have a 50-50 chance of winning, and that is the kind of game that might cause a very heavy problem for the contenders.

Arsenal will face such a game when they play their outstanding matchday 29 game against Chelsea at the Emirates Stadium on April 23. The most recent time the two London sides met was in the Premier League on October 21, 2023, and the game ended in a 2-2 draw. At that point, Chelsea were still struggling to win games, unlike last weekend when they bashed Everton 6-0. Hence, this outstanding game will be a final for the Gunners.

On matchday 35, Arsenal also have a London derby against Tottenham Hotspur at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on April 28. Games involving these two clubs, no matter their current forms, are often a 50-50 game which means that it can swing either way. The good news is that the Gunners have won three and drew one out of their last five meetings. But can Arsenal compose themselves under the intense pressure that the game will produce?

On matchday 37, Arsenal also have a season-defining league game against Manchester United at Old Trafford on May 12, 2024. In their last five meetings, the Gunners have won three and lost two which goes to show how unpredictable the tie is.

As for Manchester City, the only games that look like 50-50 fixtures are the games against Tottenham Hotspur at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on May 14, and West Ham United at the Etihad Stadium on May 19.

In the remaining six games, the games that look like 50-50 encounters for Liverpool are against West Ham United on April 27, Tottenham Hotspur on May 5, and Aston Villa on May 13.

Conclusion

Over the years, we have seen that once Pep Guardiola leads Manchester City to the top of the Premier League table at this stage of the campaign, it is always impossible for any side to unseat City. Besides that, there are no very high-quality games left for them in the league campaign when compared with the quality of games Liverpool, and especially Arsenal still have to play this season.

Indeed, it will take more than football on the pitch for any team to stop Guardiola’s City at this point of the 2023-2024 Premier League title race. Hence, Manchester will be blue again this season and Guardiola will finally set the record of being the first manager to win the Premier League title in four consecutive seasons. This means that the Premier League title race is over at this point of the campaign and Manchester City will remain the champions.

What some selected Nigerian Sports Analysts told Naija News before matchday 33 about the favourites to win the Premier League title race:

A sports analyst based in Abuja, Nigeria, John Andah said: “It’s a close call but I can’t bet against Arsenal winning the title.

“Mikel Arteta’s team have already defied the odds this season by picking a combined eight points from their title-chasing rivals, Man City and Liverpool. They’ve shown that they can win anywhere. And on the strength of their current form, they should get the better of inconsistent Spurs and struggling Man United in those crucial games on the road.

“Mentally, the North London side have demonstrated a tremendous improvement. See how they recently dispatched a stubborn Brighton side away from home.

“That’s Brighton’s first defeat in front of their fans since August last year.

“Although on paper, the Gunners have the most difficult fixtures remaining compared to Liverpool and Manchester City, there are no easy games in the Premier League. You’ve got to earn every point.”

In the same vein, a sports journalist based in Ilorin, Kwara state, Olaide Ahli said: “In analyzing the recent performances of the title contenders, Arsenal’s consistency and winning mentality stand out. Over the past five matches, Arsenal have demonstrated their ability to grind out results, with four wins and just one draw. This impressive run of form has propelled them ahead of their rivals and placed them in pole position to claim the league title.

“While Arsenal faces tough challenges in their remaining fixtures against rivals such as Manchester United, Chelsea, and Tottenham, their current form instills confidence that they can emerge victorious in these crucial encounters. The team’s resilience and determination, coupled with their tactical acumen, make them formidable opponents for any side in the league.

“In conclusion, Arsenal’s exceptional performance throughout the season, coupled with their strong defensive record, prolific goal-scoring ability, and winning mentality, position them as the favorites to win the 2023/2024 English Premier League title. With just a few matches left to play, Arsenal fans can dare to dream of celebrating their team’s triumph at the end of what promises to be an exhilarating season of football.”

Another sports journalist based in Ilorin, Yusuf Mutiu Olaitan, said: “I think Arsenal will go all the way to win the 23/24 EPL, of course, they have the toughest matches to the run in, Tottenham and Manchester United away, Chelsea at home, those type of matches are what determines what the fate of a team would be, but Arsenal have found a way to get past difficult opposition this season, the display at Etihad is an example, the emphatic display at West Ham and home to Newcastle are also good examples.

“On the other hand, I feel Pep’s Man City don’t have any motivation to go all the way, because they have won it all, winning the EPL this season won’t just be enough motivation. Also, they still have to play Tottenham, a very bogey fixture for Pep since he’s come to England.

“Liverpool on the other hand aren’t just it for me, they have been getting scrappy wins, that which I don’t believe will last long, they will falter, they will be found out later on, Tottenham and Everton fixtures might come to hurt them.

“All of these doesn’t mean Arsenal will go on and win all their matches but I believe they will gather enough wins that will take them to the glory.”

What do you think?