Opinion
IS IT POssible? By Dare Aderemi
The Nigerian presidential election is a few days away. The zeal many Nigerians show in taking an interest in the coming election should be applauded. The last time we had something similar was in 2015 during the change mantra. The country has seen an influx of foreign-based nationals returning to vote. Many hitherto politically passive Nigerians have become voices in their small groups’ canvassing support for their preferred candidate.
The tension is palpable, and the voter turnout is expected to exceed previous elections. The electoral umpire Independent National Electoral Commission(INEC) has promised a free and fair election. The BVAS technology makes rigging election increasingly tricky. If this is the case, the citizenry has the privileged right to choose their next president.
The nation really needs a new direction, a new face and a new vision.
The APC candidate Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, PDP candidate Alhaji Atiku Abubakar who is running for the umpteenth time and Mr Peter Obi of the Labour Party are the three leading candidates in this election.
5 factors, among others, will decide who wins on Saturday, 25/02/2023. It will interest you to know that the candidates’ vision, capability and capacity is not the primary reason many will vote for them. Ours is a voting system fueled by sentiments and personal interests.
The factors that will decide who wins on the 25th of February, 2023, are: religion, tribe, vision and capability, voter turn out, vote buying and the influence of state governors.
This election has seen religion used as a tool in every region against previous elections. Many Christian leaders have openly supported Mr Peter Obi, the only Christian among the leading presidential candidates. Some circulating videos show imams in the north asking worshipers to vote for a Muslim candidate. The Muslim Student Society of Nigeria (MSSN) released a memo in support of Tinubu because, according to them, Tinubu is a symbol of their strength because he made the tough decision of picking a Muslim running mate despite the pressure from the Christian Association of Nigeria. Some readers who may be familiar with religion as a tool in politics will remember Donald Trump campaigning to support some Christian values to appeal to the evangelical voting bloc in America. Religion truly is the opium of the people — Karl Marx. However, these politicians are neither righteous nor holy, just playing the divide-and-rule game. Tinubu picked his running mate to secure votes in the northeast, not because he’s pious. Mr Obi on the other hand has been visiting churches and romancing renowned church leaders to gain their support. These leaders don’t care about the renewed religious intolerance being brewed. Nigeria is a secular state and the president-elect will eventually govern Christians and Muslims.
Tribal influence on elections though intertwined with religion, is the second major factor in voter decisions. Many old Yoruba people will vote for Tinubu simply because he’s Yoruba. Mr Peter Obi will also garner votes from the southeast and many parts of the south-south sub-region. Atiku Abubakar will also get many votes from the north.
The leader’s capability, the ability to pick the best team and the leader’s vision is unfortunately the third factor(Should be first, yes?) Mr Peter Obi was a good governor in Anambra state. He is believed to be able to lead the nation into wealth and security. The bane of his leadership style is his “autocratic” tendencies. A few of his former colleagues speak of his autocratic leadership style. Mr Obi’s ability to work with a team has been questioned. Does Mr Obi does have a team in place yet? The opinion of people also is that he is the least corrupt among the candidates.
Asiwaju Bola Tinubu is renowned for having the ability to make men and build teams however, no one can tell if his physical state can match the demands of the role. Also recent accusations of corruption and some revelations about his past might not bode well for him in the polls.
Atiku Abubakar on the other hand, has the capacity to lead, he is quite intelligent but is seen as the most corrupt among the main candidates.
Voter turn out is the next most important factor. There has been less than 50% voter turnout since the beginning of the fourth republic in 1999. 2019 election had 37% voter turnout. 2015 had 42% voter turnout.
New voter registration reached about 12 million, with over two-thirds youths. If this translates to high voter turnout on Saturday, Mr Peter Obi will benefit mainly from this demography. Voter apathy has been a recurrent problem among Nigerians. Many youths will engage in frivolities on Election Day instead of voting. The complex voting model used in Nigeria has contributed to voter apathy. The process is cumbersome and tiring. This should be looked into in the future. A voter turnout of greater than 50% will be a welcomed development.
The final factor influencing voter decisions is vote buying and the influence of state governors. Although INEC has taken a strict stance against vote buying, politicians have remained ingenious and keep developing new ways to buy votes. Sadly, many poor Nigerians are at the mercy of the money they get from politicians. Maslow hierarchy of needs explains this better. Governors play key roles in the trajectory of voting in their states. Many governors with huge follower-ship influence voting pattern. Governor Ortom has pledged his support for Peter Obi, while Governor Wike has openly opposed Atiku Abubakar. The influence of these governors cannot be underestimated.
Conclusively, will Nigeria produce a new face in leadership? Will the structureless party win? Will Asiwaju Bola Tinubu get the northern support he needs to win the election? Will Atiku have the majority vote required to win the election? Only time will tell.
I ask again, is it possible? It might just be a BAT thing.
