SuperComputer Predicts 2026 World Cup Semi-finalists

As the 2026 FIFA World Cup enters the quarter-final stage, the Opta SuperComputer has predicted the teams likely to qualify for the semi-finals.

The quarter-final fixtures will see France face Morocco, Spain take on Belgium, Norway battle England, while Argentina will clash with Switzerland.

According to Opta’s projection, France, Spain, England and Argentina are the favourites to reach the last four of the tournament.

Opta gave France the highest chance of winning the 2026 World Cup, with Didier Deschamps’ side handed a 27.32 per cent probability of lifting the trophy.

The projection aligns with the view of many pundits and observers who have tipped France as one of the strongest teams left in the competition.

Spain, the current European champions, were given a 21.33 per cent chance of becoming world champions.

Argentina were handed a 17.28 per cent probability of retaining their place among the tournament favourites, while England were given a 16.48 per cent chance.

Based on the prediction, Norway, Switzerland, Morocco and Belgium are expected to exit the competition at the quarter-final stage.

The Opta projection sets up a potentially high-profile semi-final line-up if the favourites progress from their respective fixtures.

Meanwhile, seventeen players will head into the quarter-finals of the 2026 FIFA World Cup knowing another yellow card could end their hopes of featuring in a possible semi-final.

Naija News reports that under FIFA’s disciplinary regulations, any player who collects a second booking of the tournament during the quarter-finals will be suspended for the last four if their team progresses.

The list grew after the Round of 16 concluded on Tuesday, with 17 players picking up yellow cards that left them walking a disciplinary tightrope.

Morocco have the biggest concern, with four players at risk of suspension. Issa Diop, Achraf Hakimi, Redouane Halhal and Bilal El Khannouss must all avoid another caution to remain available.

England also have four players in the same position. Jude Bellingham, Nico O’Reilly, Declan Rice and Marc Guehi are all one booking away from missing a potential semi-final.

The Three Lions will also be without Jarell Quansah for Saturday’s quarter-final against Norway after the defender was sent off in England’s dramatic 3-2 victory over co-hosts Mexico in the Round of 16.

France could also be affected, with Manu Kone and Michael Olise both carrying one yellow card into the last eight.

Switzerland’s Granit Xhaka, Denis Zakaria and Miro Muheim are also at risk, while Spain forward Ferran Torres, Norway winger Antonio Nusa, Belgium defender Brandon Mechele and Argentina full-back Gonzalo Montiel complete the list.

All 17 players must come through the quarter-finals without another booking if they are to remain eligible for a potential semi-final appearance.