2027: North Split Over Peter Obi-Kwankwaso Alliance

The presidential ambition of Peter Obi, candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), is facing resistance from some northern political stakeholders and groups, even as supporters insist the party is gaining momentum across the region.

Some stakeholders who spoke to The PUNCH on the issue argued that the NDC has yet to establish strong visibility and acceptance in many northern states.

The National Publicity Secretary of the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), Tukur Muhammad-Baba, said the NDC remains largely unknown to many voters across the North.

According to him, while prominent politicians within the party continue to attract attention, their electoral influence remains uncertain.

“It is not necessarily because people dislike the NDC. The party is simply not well known,” he said.

Muhammad-Baba also expressed doubts about the extent of support available to Obi’s running mate, Rabiu Kwankwaso, outside Kano State.

“There is even doubt about whether Kwankwaso can still hold on to Kano, where he recorded his most impressive performance in the last election. Apart from Kano, his influence in many parts of the North remains uncertain,” Muhammad-Baba stated.

“The average northerner is tired of being told that having a northern candidate or a Muslim-Muslim ticket is the solution to Nigeria’s problems. People are becoming more careful because previous expectations have not produced the desired results,” he said.

According to him, political elites and voters are increasingly scrutinising the past statements and actions of opposition leaders and raising questions about their consistency and credibility.

“The average northern elite is asking: where do we go from here? There is confusion and uncertainty. It is not necessarily because people dislike the NDC. The party is simply not well known,” he said.

“In my opinion, the average northern voter is tired of all the political parties without exception. People are no longer impressed by slogans and promises. They want practical solutions to their problems,” Muhammad-Baba added.

The President of the Arewa Youth Consultative Council (AYCC), Zaid Ayuba, also argued that Obi’s candidacy faces challenges among some northern voters.

He claimed that Obi’s perceived position on certain national issues had generated concerns among sections of the electorate.

“Obi and Kwankwaso are known in the North, just like Tinubu and Atiku are known. But politics is different from victory. Obi and Kwankwaso are not accepted in the North in a way that would make one think they will win the 2027 election. In fact, they cannot come close to that.

“A stigma has been trailing Obi’s candidature before his declaration in 2023. He can never be accepted in the North because of two factors. One is that he has openly shown that he is an IPOB sympathiser. Obi had, in several interviews, tried to condemn the Supreme Court judgment on the proscription of IPOB and its designation as a terrorist organisation.

“There are people from other parts of this country who try to make northerners look as if they are terrorist sympathisers. But that is not true. No reasonable northerner or authority came out to sympathise with Boko Haram leaders like Muhammad Yusuf or Shekau,” he said.

A political science professor in Sokoto, who requested anonymity, said the NDC still lacks strong structures in several northern states.

According to him, the party is yet to establish the kind of presence enjoyed by the APC, PDP and ADC in many parts of the region.

“It is a question of visibility. The NDC is a completely new party as far as party politics in Nigeria is concerned,” he said.

The Northern Youth Assembly accused Kwankwaso of abandoning northern political interests through his alliance with Obi.

In a statement signed by its Secretary-General, Hafiz Garba, the group argued that the alliance did not reflect the values historically associated with the Kwankwasiyya movement.

“Kwankwaso’s ultimate betrayal is not the betrayal of a party, a platform or a political alliance. His ultimate betrayal is the betrayal of the idea that northern Nigeria could produce a political leader whose commitment to the region’s dignity, history and cultural identity was not merely performative but genuine.

“Kwankwaso now stands as the leading political embarrassment and disappointment of the northern region and the ideology for which our forefathers built the region and died for.

“Northern Nigeria’s people deserve leaders who place their interests, dignity and advancement at the absolute centre of every political calculation,” the statement added

However, party officials and supporters rejected claims that the NDC lacks acceptance in the North.

The NDC Chairman in Borno State, Haruna Amuda, said the party had recorded significant membership growth and defections from rival parties.

“We are currently experiencing massive defections into the party,” he said.

In Jigawa State, party chieftain Abdulrazak Birnin-Kudu said coordinators had been appointed in all local government areas and mobilisation efforts were ongoing at the grassroots.

“The structure is functional but still growing. We have coordinators in every local government, and we are mobilising at the grassroots. Our strength is the youth. They are tired of the old order,” Birnin-Kudu said.

The party’s governorship candidate in the state, Aminu Dutse, said insecurity and economic hardship were pushing voters towards alternative political platforms.

“Although the party is new compared to others, we now have candidates for all elective positions ahead of 2027. Our challenge is convincing voters that a new party can deliver,” he said.

The Northern Region Director of the Civil Liberty Organisation (CLO), Steve Aluko-Daniel, dismissed claims that the NDC was unpopular in the region.

He argued that many northern voters were attracted to the combination of Obi and Kwankwaso.

Aluko-Daniel said, “For now, the acceptance is very high. For the first time, the North is not having a monolithic front. Nobody has been able to inherit Buhari’s followers, so voters are freely associating with their preferred party, and the NDC is coming into play.

“The North is gradually gravitating towards its old politics, which is the politics of the talakawa. From what we’ve seen thus far, northerners are moving to the NDC because of the personalities of Kwankwaso and Obi. If there is any credible election today, the NDC will floor other political parties in the North and across the country.”

Similarly, National Co-Chairman of the NDC Coalition Alliance Network, Zakari Garba, described the partnership as one of the strongest political combinations ahead of the 2027 elections.

“Peter Obi is widely respected for prudence, accountability, economic management and visionary leadership, while Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso remains one of the most influential political figures in Northern Nigeria with extensive grassroots support.

“Together, they represent competence, national unity, experience, credibility and the capacity to rebuild Nigeria’s economy while restoring hope to millions of citizens,” he said.