2027: ‘Tinubu To Beat Atiku, Peter Obi In 20 States’

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has been projected to emerge victorious in the 2027 presidential election.

Naija News understands that a new political forecast gives the incumbent President 20 states against nine for former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and eight for Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) candidate Peter Obi.

The projection was made by the Political Intelligence Group (PIG) of Politico.ng, which assessed the current political landscape and projected the performance of the three main candidates in next year’s election.

While the projection states that President Tinubu would have a clear advantage over his major rivals, PIG noted that the political situation could change significantly before the general election.

The forecast places Tinubu strongly in the South-West while also giving him important victories outside the region. Atiku is projected to maintain considerable strength across parts of Northern Nigeria, while Obi is expected to retain support in selected areas where he performed strongly during the 2023 presidential election.

The president is expected to dominate the South-West, with all six states in the region projected to fall into his column. The region remains politically significant because of its voting strength and Tinubu’s long-standing political influence there.

Tinubu is also projected to win Lagos State in the 2027 presidential election despite losing the state to Peter Obi in the 2023 presidential election.

The inclusion of Kano among the states projected to go to Tinubu is one of the more striking aspects of the forecast. Kano is one of Nigeria’s largest states by voting population and has traditionally been an important battleground during presidential elections.

A victory in Kano would provide Tinubu with a major northern foothold and could strengthen his ability to build a broad national coalition beyond his traditional South-West base.

Tinubu’s eventual performance would heavily depend on how Nigerians access economic conditions, inflation, employment, security, infrastructure and the cost of living.

Religion and ethnicity could also play a role in the political calculations of Nigerians.

For Atiku Abubakar, the former vice president is expected to perform strongly in Northern Nigeria, with Kaduna State projected to go to him alongside several states in the North-East and North-West.

His strength in the north and ability to mobilise support in the region could make him one of Tinubu’s strongest competitors in the region.

Meanwhile, his position on subsidy could significant as the former Vice President has advocated a review of the current fuel subsidy policy and spoken about measures aimed at reducing the burden of petrol prices on Nigerians. If the high cost of transportation and living remains a major concern by 2027, such a promise could appeal to voters who want immediate relief from rising household expenses.

However, electorates may want to know where the money required to fund the subsidy would come from and whether restoring or expanding the policy would be financially sustainable.

Religion and ethnicity may also influence Atiku’s support in some areas, particularly where regional identity remains politically important. However, these factors cannot be assumed to determine how every voter will behave.

On Peter Obi, PIG predicts the NDC presidential candidate will win eight states.

The projection also places the Federal Capital Territory in Obi’s column. Edo State is another state where the Labour Party candidate is expected to emerge victorious.

Obi’s projected support reflects the political base he developed during the 2023 presidential election, when he performed strongly in several parts of the country.

His campaign has continued to appeal particularly to voters seeking political change and a different approach to governance. Economic management, accountability, public spending and the need for greater efficiency in government are likely to remain central to his political message.

However, Obi’s challenge could be expanding his support beyond the areas where he has historically performed strongly.

The 2027 election is expected to be highly competitive, and the emergence of new political alliances could significantly change the distribution of votes.

If opposition parties eventually cooperate or form a coalition, the calculations surrounding Tinubu, Atiku and Obi could change dramatically. Likewise, defections, the choice of running mates and the strength of party structures could influence the final outcome.

Religion and ethnicity could also feature in the contest, particularly as politicians seek to build geographically and demographically balanced tickets. Nevertheless, voters could also prioritise issues such as economic hardship, security, employment and government performance.

PIG’s forecast should not be interpreted as the final result of the 2027 presidential election.

The group reportedly indicated that if the election were held in September under the political circumstances currently prevailing, the APC would win.

Under that scenario, Tinubu would secure 20 states, Atiku would win nine, while Obi would take eight.

However, the actual election is still ahead, giving the major political players considerable time to change the current political equation.