2027 Elections: Will Bigger Campaign Spendings Translate To More Votes?

The 2027 general elections are less than 150 days away. On January 16, Nigerians are expected to troop out en masse to exercise their civic rights again by voting for candidates of their choice for another four years.

As expected, political rallies, media campaigns and grassroots mobilization have commenced across states as the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) finalizes its preparation for the most anticipated electioneering season.

During this period, candidates and political parties often spend huge sums in the race for votes.

The recently concluded Osun State governorship election has provided fresh material for that debate, particularly as political parties begin to prepare for what is expected to be an even more expensive 2027 contest.

In the Osun State election, campaign mobilization, political structures, media visibility and grassroots engagement featured prominently in what was largely a two-horse contest between Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party and the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Bola Oyebamiji.

The APC, for instance, treated the election as an important political test ahead of 2027 and deployed a large national campaign structure involving governors, lawmakers and senior party figures.

APC Governors, party leaders, and stakeholders from across states stormed Osogbo, the Osun State capital, to campaign for their candidate, Oyebamiji.

Naija News observed that despite the heavy mobilization and spending as seen with the APC in the Osun election, it did not translate into a victory for the party’s candidate.

Recall that after the hot contest, INEC eventually declared Adeleke the winner after he polled 511,067 votes against Oyebamiji’s 444,815, giving the sitting governor a margin of 66,252 votes. Adeleke won 19 of the state’s 30 local government areas, while Oyebamiji won 11.

But behind those figures lies a more difficult question: Did the amount of money spent by either campaign actually determine the outcome?

Oppositions Reject Campaign Fees

Barely a month ago, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) rejected the new outdoor campaign fees announced by the Abia State Signage and Advertising Agency for political parties and candidates ahead of the 2027 general elections.

The agency had allocated ₦200 million for presidential candidates and ₦150 million for gubernatorial candidates to advertise their campaigns across the state.

It also announced a fee of ₦150 million for senatorial candidates, while candidates contesting seats in the House of Representatives and House of Assembly are expected to pay ₦50 million and ₦20 million, respectively.

The state advertising agency revealed the new charges in Aba.

In response, the Chairman of the ADC in Abia State, Kalu Kalu, questioned the rationale for the new campaign charges.

Kalu, who was present when the new fee regime was unveiled, was accompanied by the ADC House of Assembly candidate for Arochukwu Constituency, Francess Ogbonnaya Tabitha.

The ADC chairman expressed concern that the fees were too high and could conflict with the provisions of the Electoral Act, particularly the limits placed on campaign expenditure by political candidates.

He warned that allowing the charges to remain could negatively affect opposition candidates and parties ahead of the 2027 elections.

‘A Massive Scam’

Also reacting, the presidential candidate of the African Action Congress (AAC), Omoyele Sowore, berated Abia State Governor Alex Otti over his latest directive on political campaign advertising permit fees.

In a post on his 𝕏 account on Thursday, Sowore described Otti as a ‘massive scam.’

“Alex C. Otti has become one of Nigeria’s biggest political disappointments. @alexottiofr is a massive scam, and the full extent of that scam is still unravelling,” Sowore wrote.

‘Defaulters Could Have Their Campaign Materials Removed’

Meanwhile, the Cross River State Signage and Advertisement Agency (CRISSAA) had also fixed ₦150 million as the tariff for outdoor campaign advertisements by presidential candidates ahead of the 2027 general elections.

Naija News understands that under the new tariff, governorship candidates are expected to pay ₦100 million, while senatorial candidates will pay ₦50 million for outdoor campaign advertisements.

Candidates contesting seats in the House of Representatives and State House of Assembly are to pay ₦25 million and ₦ 5 million, respectively.

The Director-General of CRISSAA, Ubong Sam, announced the new rates during an interactive meeting with members of the Inter-Party Advisory Council, IPAC, in Calabar.

Sam also directed political parties and candidates to remove their campaign billboards and other advertising materials within 30 days after the announcement of the election results.

He said the charges were moderate when compared with tariffs in neighbouring states, insisting that the agency was not taking sides in its dealings with political parties and candidates.

According to him, CRISSAA introduced the new measures to properly regulate advertising spaces and ensure fairness among political parties and candidates.

“We have tried to regulate advert space by not allowing anybody to insult the integrity of anybody or party, by being fair in all ramifications, by giving advertisers opportunity to either dialogue or arbitration and not necessarily by litigation,” he said.

The CRISSAA boss warned political parties and candidates against violating the agency’s regulations, saying defaulters could have their campaign materials removed, pay fines, or face prosecution before the Advertising Regulatory Council of Nigeria (ARCON).

Sam stressed that ARCON fines could run into millions of naira.

PDP Rejects Campaign Signage Fee In Kogi

In Kogi State, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) also rejected the newly introduced fees for campaign signage and promotional materials ahead of the October 2026 local government elections and the 2027 general elections.

The party described the charges as excessive, disproportionate, and undemocratic, arguing that the policy could make it difficult for political parties and candidates, particularly those with limited financial resources, to campaign effectively.

The Kogi PDP Chairman, Mohammed Gambo, stated this in a statement issued in Lokoja, the state capital.

Naija News reports that the state government had announced fees of ₦150 million for presidential candidates, ₦50 million for senatorial candidates, ₦30 million for House of Representatives candidates, ₦5m for State Assembly candidates, ₦2 million for chairmanship candidates and ₦300,000 for councillorship candidates for campaign signage and related promotional materials.

Reacting to the policy, Gambo acknowledged the government’s responsibility to regulate outdoor advertising and maintain order in public spaces.

He, however, argued that such regulations must be reasonable and affordable and should not interfere with the constitutional rights of political parties, candidates, and citizens to participate in elections.

Campaign Spending: ‘More Money Does Not Always Mean More Votes’ – Folahan Johnson

Speaking to Naija News on the bigger picture ahead of the 2027 general elections, Public finance expert, Executive Director of the Center for Inclusive Social Development (CISD), Folahan Johnson, clarified whether campaign spending can influence election results and how this impact can be measured, while also distinguishing campaign expenditure from vote-buying.

‎”Look at the cost per vote, not the total money spent,” the Financial Expert noted.

‎”For instance, if Candidate A spent ₦5 billion and got 500,000 votes, while Candidate B spent ₦15 billion and got 550,000 votes, Candidate A was actually more efficient.”
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‎”A bigger campaign budget does not automatically mean smarter or more effective spending. What matters is how much was spent and the number of additional votes that spending helped to generate,” Johnson noted.
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On whether he joined in the belief that campaign spending influenced the outcome of the just-concluded governorship election in Osun State, Johnson said, “You have to remove other advantages before blaming or crediting the money.

‎”Incumbency, party structure, and existing popularity can win votes on their own, with or without heavy campaign spending. If you don’t separate those factors first, you may wrongly give money the credit for something that was actually influenced by other advantages.

‎”You also have to check where spending stops making a difference. More money does not always mean more votes.”
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‎”There is a point where additional adverts, rallies, and other campaign activities stop convincing new voters. At that stage, you may simply be spending money on people who were already going to vote for you or against you,” he added.
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On expectations as the 2027 election campaign begins, and whether he believes money will play a major role again, the Financial Expert responded, noting that “Money will certainly play its role.”

‎He, however, warned against mixing campaign spending with vote buying.

‎”But don’t mix campaign spending with vote buying. They are different things,” Johnson said.

Asked what Nigerians should expect as the campaign gathers momentum ahead of January, Johnson said the political space would become increasingly active, with candidates and parties stepping up their efforts to win voters.

He said Nigerians should expect more endorsements and political defections, as politicians and supporters realign ahead of the election.

Johnson also identified social media as a major battleground, with parties expected to make greater use of targeted online campaigns and influencers to push their messages and reach specific groups of voters.

He said candidates would likely adopt different messages for different regions and voter groups, depending on their political interests and concerns.

According to him, there would also be increased grassroots mobilization, with parties paying closer attention to communities and individual polling units as part of efforts to secure votes.

Johnson added that incumbents could use the advantages that come with being in power, while negative campaigns and attacks against political opponents, particularly on social media, could become more common as the election approaches.

Further stressing the influence of money on elections, the Abuja-based Public Finance expert said, “We need to be clear about which type of spending we are talking about. Otherwise, we risk putting completely different activities into the same category.”

‎Johnson highlighted that campaign spending covers activities such as rallies, advertisements, and logistics, which are aimed at persuading and mobilizing voters before election day.

Vote buying, on the other hand, involves handing out cash or other incentives at the polling unit or around election day in exchange for an immediate vote, he explained.