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Nigeria Can’t Generate 30,000MW By 2030, Experts Lament Snail Pace Growth Of Power Sector


Some industry experts in the power sector have said with the slow pace of growth in the country’s power sector, the federal government’s vision of 30:30:30 can’t be achieved.

Their reaction follows the release of a report by generation companies revealing that the country’s capacity dropped to 5,346.82 megawatts (MW) in 2022 from 6,336.52MW recorded in 2021.

Naija News reports that the Executive Secretary, Association, Power Generation Companies, Joy Ogaji, disclosed that the Nigerian power sector was only recording about 100MW growth in power generation yearly.

According to her, the feasibility that Nigeria would attain a generation capacity of 30,000MW by 2030 was heavily under doubt considering the snail’s pace of growth in the sector.

Naija News understands that the vision 30:30:30 is an Energy Efficiency Policy projected by the federal government to achieve 30,000MW generation capacity by 2030.

The policy seeks to achieve 30% of this generation capacity from a renewable energy mix.

However, Ogaji noted that with the trend in power generation over the years, one could easily project the future of electricity production in the country.

She noted that “100MW per annum growth. We can project easily in 20 years where we can be, aside from the political megawatts projection. Do we really have a market? If yes what are the dynamics underpinning it?

“Is vision 2030 viable? At 100MW per annum by 2030 we only need to add 700MW and we can foretell our target. Is 30,000MW projection realistic?”

Naija News gathered that her reaction is a sequel to the release of the latest data on electricity generation trends seen in Abuja by Punch on Monday.

The document was said to reveal that Nigeria’s average available generation capacity fluctuated between 4,000MW and 7,700MW since the sector was privatised in 2013.

The document on Power Generation Trend (2013 – 2022), showed that while the average quantum of electricity utilised in 2021 was 4,118.98MW, it dropped to 3,940.54MW in 2022.

Also, the average utilised generation hovered between 3,000MW and 4,000MW during the nine-year review period, while unutilised generation revolved around 1,000MW and 3,700MW.

The document disclosed that the annual capacity payment loss to power generation companies had increased to N1.8 trillion, as data from the document further showed a decrease in the average utilised power in 2022.

Figures from the document showed that Nigeria’s average available power generation capacity in 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016 was 4,214.32MW; 6,154.05MW; 6,616.28MW; and 7,039.96MW respectively.

In 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, the average available generation capacity figures were 6,871.26MW; 7,506.23MW; 7,381.67MW; and 7,792.51MW respectively.

Since 2018, the figures kept dropping, as those of 2021 and 2022 were 6,336.52MW and 5,346.82MW respectively.

For average utilised generation, the report stated that in 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016, the quantum of electricity utilised was 3,183.51MW; 3,419.1MW; 3,606.05MW; and 3,212.02MW respectively.

The average utilised power in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 were put at 3,599.33MW; 3,807.22MW; 3,782MW; and 4,050.07MW respectively.

For 2021 and 2022, the average quantum of utilised electricity was 4,118.98MW and 3,940.54MW respectively, according to the figures from the power generation companies.

The Gencos also stated in the document that the total capacity payment loss to power producers from 2015 to 2022 had increased to N1.8 trillion.

The report also revealed that in 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018, the annual capacity payment loss was N214.93 billion, N273.32 billion, N236.47 billion and N264.08 billion respectively.

For 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022, the figures for annual capacity payment loss were put at N256.97 billion, N266.1 billion, N159.86 billion and N132.19 billion respectively.

However reacting to this new development, Deputy President, of Nigeria Labour Congress, Joe Ajaero told Punch that the quantum of electricity produced in the sector had failed to increase since the sector was privatised in November 2013.

Ajaero, who is also the General Secretary, of the National Union of Electricity Employees submitted that despite the persistent rise in the demand for electricity by consumers, the stagnancy in power generation had persisted.

He observed that “If you’re looking at the power sector since you asked me to use a word to qualify it, the power sector is a failing sector. It is a failing sector, and this means that it is going down, down, down.

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“This is because the megawatts produced in that sector have remained constant, while the demand for it is increasing by the day. If Nigeria had any conscious master plan, it would have ensured that power production grows to meet up with demand.”