Edo2016 Vs Edo2020: Election Data Shows Oshiomhole Was Probably Not That Consequential After All

A New data analysis carried out by Newsmen suggests that Adam’s Oshiomhole, the former governor of Edo state, was inconsequential in the 2016 and 2020 gubernatorial poll in the state, or equally consequential.

The findings has revealed huge similarities between events which surrounded the 2016 and that of 2020.

In 2016, Oshiomhole had supported Godwin Obaseki, while Ize-Iyamu had contested under the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party(PDP).

At the time, Obaseki won 13 local government areas (LGAs) in the state, defeating Ize-Iyamu, who recorded victories in only five of 18 LGAs.

Similarly, in the 2020 Poll, Obaseki won 13 local government areas (LGAs) in the state, defeating Ize-Iyamu, who recorded victories in only five of 18 LGAs.

The only difference was that Oshiomhole, prior to the election, and due to a once good relationship, gone bad dumped his protege and incumbent governor of the state, Obaseki, in order to support his old foe, Ize-Iyamu.

All through the campaign, Oshiomhole had insisted  that Obaseki was a mistake he made in 2016.

“I have made my honest mistakes. Only God is perfect. I am now 68 years old. I have come to apologise for the mistake of supporting Obaseki in 2016. I am in Edo State to repair my mistakes,” Oshiomhole had said.

As a result, Oshiomhole pitched his tent with Ize-Iyamu and said Edo people were going to “punish” Obaseki on September 19.

“Obaseki has abused the trust of Edo people. With our permanent voter cards, we shall punish Obaseki on September 19. Ize-Iyamu will not repeat the mistakes of Obaseki. Ize-Iyamu will take Edo State to the next level,” he added.

Oshiomhole had appealed to key stakeholders to support “Pastor Ize-Iyamu, a man of God, who will ensure good governance”.

At the end of the election, Ize-Iyamu lost. In the same manner  he lost in 2016: bested in 13 local governments by his political rival, Obaseki. Like 2016, he won in only five LGAs.

What looks constant here is: any side Obaseki is on, wins. Any party with Ize-Iyamu as flagbearer loses.

The winner gets 13 LGAs, the loser gets only five LGAs.

It did not matter what side Oshiomhole was on: the winners and losers remained the same.

Would Obaseki have won on his own in 2016 without the support of Oshiomhole? He wouldn’t have even secured the APC ticket, much less be a candidate of a strong party.

But Obaseki of 2020 is different: an incumbent governor displaying all the powers that come with incumbency, finance not being the least.

He also enjoyed a lot of perceived underdog sympathy and the “federal might” was not used against him, even if it was not used in his favour.