Why Coronavirus Cases May Reach 39,000 – Lagos Govt

The Lagos Commissioner for Health, Prof. Akin Abayomi, has said the state might record up to 39,000 cases of coronavirus (Covid-19).

Speaking to newsmen at the Secretariate, Alausa, Ikeja, Abayomi said though it may be the worst scenario, it could, however, be limited to 13,000 if everybody adheres to and practices the measures directed by the government, especially social distancing.

He said: “Our mathematical modelling shows that the worst-case scenario is that we may see up to 39,000 cases in Lagos, but if everyone practices good social distancing, the figure will be limited to 13,000.

“If we add social distancing to active contact tracing, then we will be able to bend the curve further.”

Abayomi, however, said that the figures were small as compared to outbreaks around the globe.

“The figures may seem alarming at this point, but this is just to emphasize to the Lagos community to follow instructions of the incident commander to make sure that we practice social distancing and other preventive measures.

“Looking at the same time frame from the introduction of the index case, you can see that Lagos State is not seen anywhere near what Spain, Italy and Iran are showing.

“So, at weeks two and three of our index case, we are flat and at week four, we have 37 cases; while at the same fourth week, Italy, Iran and Spain had more than 20,000 cases.

“So, we are doing something right in the state.”