THE FOUR WITNESS ACCOUNT OF NORTHERN VITAL INTEREST
(ANTHROPOLOGICAL SEQUENCE: NORTHERN PENTAGON AGAINST TINUBU’S PRESIDENCY AND EL-RUFAI’S NIGHT OF LONG KNIVES )
“How to end godfatherism in Lagos politics – El-Rufai
The Governor of Kaduna State, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, on Saturday said he defeated and retired four political godfathers in Kaduna State, saying the feat could be replicated anywhere, including Lagos State.”
ANTHROPOLOGICAL SEQUENCE FOR STRATEGIC PLANNING: FROM AFONJA TO BANIRE
- 1824: Afonja was killed by Alimi’s son, the Yoruba lost their vital territorial interest of Illorin to the Fulani.
- 1966: 1966: Akintola and Ahmadu Bello’s partnership ended abruptly in death.
- 1989: Tai Solarin’s narrow reputation escape. Babangida established the peoples bank and tried to sure up his reputation by association with Tai Solarin, the respected teacher from Ikenne escaped with his reputation intact.
- 1993: Abiola was the vital interest partner of the core North, under NPN, with whom he resisted Awolowo; the custodian symbolic figure of the vital interest of the South West. After he crossed over to the progressives, to protect the vital interest of the South West under Babangida, both he and his June 12 mandate were compromised with the infamous annulment of June 12.
- 1993: Olu Onagoruwa was Abacha’s Law minister. The result of that association was his lost progressive reputation.
- 2015: Tinubu facilitated Buhari’s presidential victory, his wife would later complain (as we shall read): “My husband was ‘trashed’ “…. used and dumped!
- 2019: After Tinubu again helped Buhari to another presidential victory, a pentagon of five hostile winds are ganging up against him.
- 2019: Muiz Banire discovered Afonja’s shoes, and wore them, putting Tinubu’s feet in the Alaafin’s shoes while El-rufai has settled into the shoes of Alimi…. history as an anthropological statement has found a new set of actors!
A strategic planner only needs to track the recurring anthropological trend and plan! Between 1824 and 2019 is a Grand Strategic period of 195 years in which the core North has sustained its vital interest. All the custodian of vital interest of the North need to do, to hold power for the next 195 years is to sustain the present anthropological paradigm and Akintola, Tinubu and Banire by their actions are facilitating the process.
To break it however, the South West must take “the only route not followed”, that was the route proposed and test run by the Strategic Sage, Chief Obafemi Awolowo (for which he was jailed) that route is the East/West collaboration that includes the South South and middle belt or the next 195 years, subject to strategic planning stand guaranteed.
AWOLOWO’S MARCH, 28 1966 LETTER TO IRONSI, THE EVIDENCE OF THE WAY OUT:
“In October 1963 (that is about a month after my conviction and while my appeal to the Supreme Court was still pending), a Peace Committee headed by the Chief Justice of the Federation, Sir Adetokunbo Ademola, made overtures to me through my friend Alhaji W. A. Elias to the effect that if I abandoned my intention to enter into alliance with the N.C.N.C. which, according to the Committee, was an Ibo Organisation, and agreed to dissolve the Action Group and, in co-operation with Chief Akintola (now deceased), form an all-embracing Yoruba political party which I would lead and which would go into alliance with the N.P.C., I would be released from prison before the end of that year.” https://www.google.com/m?q=AWOLOWO%27S+letter+to+Ironsi&client=ms-opera-mobile&channel=new&espv=1
“if I abandoned my intention to enter into alliance with the N.C.N.C. which, according to the Committee, was an Ibo Organisation”
This is the template for using anthropology as strategic tool for planning, with vital Interest in view!
DEUS EX MACHINA OR DIVINE INTERVENTION, DETAILS OF THE ONLY WAY OUT!
Deus ex machina? Two meanings from Webster’s dictionary
“1 : A god introduced by means of a crane….. in ancient Greek and Roman drama to decide the final outcome
2 : A person or thing (as in fiction or drama) that appears or is introduced suddenly and unexpectedly and provides a contrived solution to an apparently insoluble difficulty” https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/deus%20ex%20machina
The first meaning is a Divine intervention, the second a revolution! Chukwuma Kaduna Nzeogwu and Gideon Orkar were the closest!
THE PENTAGON AND NATIONAL DEFENSE STRATEGY:
The Pentagon is the place where plans to defend the vital interests of the United States by force of arms are domiciled and carried out (as orders) as military operations per time.
Pentagon is synonymous with vital interests. In basic mathematics it is a geometrical shape with five sides.
The Pentagon is the location of the National Defense strategy of the United States.
“Summary of the 2018 National Defense Strategy of the United States of America” is captured this way:
“The Department of Defense’s enduring mission is to provide combat-credible military forces needed to deter war and protect the security of our nation. Should deterrence fail, the Joint Force is prepared to win. Reinforcing America’s traditional tools of diplomacy, the Department provides military options to ensure the President and our diplomats negotiate from a position of strength.”
Just as the Pentagon has five sides, there are five Northern forces against Tinubu’s alleged presidential quest.
Just as the Pentagon defends the vital interests of the United States, these five winds are gathering as a tsunami against Tinubu to protect their vital interest from his reach
The facts must be stated clearly that Bola Ahmed Tinubu was the strategist that outwitted Atiku for Buhari to emerge as the presidential flag bearer of APC at the 2014 primaries. The choice of Lagos as the venue, made the difference. Tinubu again was instrumental in Buhari’s defeat of Jonathan in 2015.
“Buhari stated: “If Bola Ahmed Tinubu did not participate, there wouldn’t have been a merger and there wouldn’t have been an APC government at the centre. That is absolutely clear.“https://www.google.com/amp/s/punchng.com/apc-wouldnt-have-won-without-tinubu-buhari/amp/
EL-RUFAI’S “NIGHT OF THE LONG KNIVES”:
….was aptly defined this way: “How to end godfatherism in Lagos politics – El-Rufai”
It means two things:
1 it means the historical
…. a reminder of the infamous night of long knives:
“Night of the Long Knives, in German history, purge of Nazi leaders by Adolf Hitler on June 30, 1934. Fearing that the paramilitary SA had become too powerful, Hitler ordered his elite SS guards to murder the organization’s leaders, including Ernst Röhm. Also killed that night were hundreds of other perceived opponents of Hitler.”https://www.britannica.com/event/Night-of-the-Long-Knives
2 It means the strategic:
….the strategic meeting between Banire and El-rufai
“Banire then asked El-Rufai how godfathership could be dealt with.
Responding, El-Rufai said, “Godfatherism. This is Lagos….El-Rufai added that the fact that only one million out of the six million registered voters in Lagos voted in the last general elections was an opportunity to end godfathership in the state……Here in Lagos, you have over six million registered voters, only about a million voted (in 2019 general elections); five million did not vote. If I want to run for governor of Lagos, I will start now. I will commission a study to know why those five million registered voters did not vote; where do they go on election day? Then I will start visiting them for the next four years. I will try and get just two million of them to come and vote for me; I will defeat any godfather. The key is to go to the people.”
STRATEGIC ANALYSIS OF BANIRE AND EL-RUFAI’S DISCOURSE:
- How to compromise Tinubu’s “Critical Support Network” (Critical Support Network was coined by the historian, Max Siollun)
- How to shrink his sphere of influence
- How to reduce his magnetic strength of attraction understood as his Centre of Influence
That was El-Rufai’s mission to Bridge club Lagos…..”An evening with His Excellency Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, Governor of Kaduna State.”
STRATEGIC QUESTION OF GRAND STRATEGIC CONSEQUENCE AND BANIRE’S ACTION BASED ON ANTHROPOLOGY:
University of Calicut, (India), in Module 1, of its 2011 admission curriculum it titled “Social
“Anthropology is the study of various elements of humans, including biology and culture, in order to understand human origin and the evolution of various beliefs and social customs.”
It went on to add:
“Definitions of Anthropology
1. The concise oxford dictionary: study of mankind especially of its societies and customs; study of structure and evolution of man as an animal”.
2. Kroeber: “Anthropology is the science of groups of men and their behaviour and production”.
3. Herskovits: “Anthropology may be defined as the measurement of human beings.”
4. Jocobs and Stern: “Anthropology is the scientific study of the physical, social and cultural development and behaviour of human beings since their appearance on this earth.” https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://www.universityofcalicut.info/SDE/Social_anthropology.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjV95ep0pDiAhWaAGMBHdP-CeIQFjACegQIBBAB&usg=AOvVaw3oX-qVGw77vei7BOR2Jnia&cshid=1557480339556
What is Grand Strategy?
“Grand strategy is the highest level of national statecraft that establishes how states, or other political units, prioritize and mobilize which military, diplomatic, political, economic, and other sources of power to ensure what they perceive as their interests.” Paul van Hooft “https://www.oxfordbibliographies.com/view/document/obo-9780199743292/obo-9780199743292-0218.xml
The essence of Grand Strategy is vital Interests and those vital Interests according to Henry Palmerston, the former British Prime Minister, in those famous 1848 words of his, are eternal.
“We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow.” Henry Palmerston
Question: With Tinubu in view in his capacity as Asiwaju, is Banire walking the path of Afonja against Alafin with Alami, just the way Akintola walked with Ahmadu Bello against Awolowo?
Strategic Observation: Any inquiry into the political question of Nigeria that excludes the vital social sciences of sociology, psychology, anthropology, social work, political science (and the library called history) that shape the political content of political economics ( in a given political economic system) and geopolitical but goes on to examine both without their political components, is an exercise in error.
The Core North (perhaps by inputs from the British understand this) and so did Awolowo, Tinubu decision to go the way of Akintola against the precepts of Awolowo, raises one question:
Question: Did Tinubu factor in anthropology with the result witnessed by Afonja, Awolowo and Abiola (the set of three “A”s) in partnering with Buhari with the view of a progressive succession after Buhari?
Question: Why is the Afonja/Alimi/Alafin affair that took place in 1824, that resulted in the assassination of Afonja , similar to the 1963 trial of Awolowo; in the position of the Alaafin, and Sowemimo (with his tied hands) in the position of Afonja and the “invisible” vital interest of the North, in the position of Alimi, that resulted in the 11th September, 1963, conviction and subsequent jailing of Awolowo, similar to the 2019 Betrayal of Tinubu (in the position of the Alaafin) by Banire (in the position of Afonja) and El-Rufai in the position of Alimi’s son similar?……The strategic power of anthropology for strategic planning is the “power point”!
Question: Why did Tinubu fail to learn from his his own use and dump lamentation?
“My husband was ‘trashed’ after APC won 2015 polls —Tinubu’s wife” https://www.google.com/amp/s/punchng.com/my-husband-was-trashed-after-apc-won-2015-polls-tinubus-wife/amp/
Observation: By a strange coincidence, Afonja, Alimi and Alaafin all begin with the Alphabet “A”, just the way Awolowo, Akintola and Ahmadu; Ahmadu Bello Begin with “A”, just as Bola; Bola Tinubu, Buhari and Banire begin with “B”.
GATHERING STORM…. THE FIVE WINDS OF THE NORTHERN PENTAGON AGAINST TINUBU
1 EL-RUFAI=THE “DESERT FOX” OF DECEPTION
El-rufai….. a friend or foe? “Tinubu as the “lungs of the APC while President Buhari is the heart’, the senator said it was unfortunate that “el-Rufai, who smiles with Tinubu during the daylight, stings him at night”. Shehu Sani https://www.google.com/amp/s/thenationonlineng.net/el-rufai-fire-anti-southwest-tinubu-comment/amp/
Erwin Rommel, the world war 2 German General, was the original owner of the nickname Desert Fox. El-Rufai is the “Desert Fox” of deception of our day, the governor of the arid state of Kaduna who once knelt down at the feet of Tinubu, only to back stab him later; knife of the long night style!
“Governor Nasir El-Rufai was pictured kneeling down in front of All Progressives Congress, APC, chieftain, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu during the wedding ceremony of Governor Rotimi Akeredolu over the weekend.”https://www.nigerianbulletin.com/threads/photo-of-gov-el-rufai-kneeling-down-to-greet-tinubu-that-everyone-is-talking-about.279889/
It is only a political fox of deception from the desert, that will kneel before a man in 2018 because he needed his vote only to backstab the same man man the year following year, after the one he knelt too has out lived his usefulness!
“Reno Omokri, a former aide to ex-president Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, has said that Kaduna state governor, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, is fond of kneeling down for people when he needs them and talk down on them when he is done using them……..He further shared that Tinubu would not be the first person El-Rufai has knelt down for and insult afterward. He added that Tinubu needs to ask Atiku about El-Rufai.” http://opr.news/6bfdf1ca632fbca7_ng
“Rommel earned his vaunted reputation, as well as his nickname (he became known for his “fox-like” sneak attacks). Winning significant victories against the British” https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.history.com/.amp/this-day-in-history/the-desert-fox-commits-suicide
EL-RUFAI went on…..
“With about N2bn; if you start, you see these guys with black ties, they will give you the N2bn. Many of the godfathers are either on paper or in the mind of people in politics. They are defeatable”…Those were the words of El-rufai….. a friend or foe?
2 BODEJO=THE NORTHERN CONSERVATIVE
“Tinubu won’t be president of Nigeria –Bodejo, Miyetti Allah boss•Why north should retain power in 2023” Abdullahi Bodejo, National President, Miyetti Allah Kautal Hore, https://www.sunnewsonline.com/tinubu-wont-be-president-of-nigeria-bodejo-miyetti-allah-boss/
3 JUNAID MOHAMMED=THE NORTHERN RADICAL GADFLY
“South should forget 2023 Presidency –Junaid Mohammed •Says zoning, power rotation is dead” https://www.sunnewsonline.com/south-should-forget-2023-presidency-junaid-mohammed/
4 BABACHIR LAWAL =THE NORTHERN MINORITY VOICE.
“No law says Osinbajo must succeed Buhari in 2023 — Babachir” Babachir Lawal https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/324266-no-law-says-osinbajo-must-succeed-buhari-in-2023-babachir.html%3famp_markup=1
5 YERIMA SHETTIMA, PRESIDENT GENERAL, AREWA CONSULTATIVE FORUM (ACF) The voice of the Northern Youths=The ridiculous claim to the effect that Buhari who by nepotism has favoured and protected both the vital interest of his section of the North and the vested interest of specific individuals, is under the strategic manipulation of the South West, for the vital interest benefit of the South West
“The Arewa Consultative Youth Forum, AYCF, has claimed that a national leader of the All Progressives Congress, APC, Bola Tinubu and his cabals have taken over the country.”
“According to Shettima….a case where one of our own from the North is a President, they deliberately put him there and they are milking the entire country in the interest of the South-West and South…..So, the question of power going back to the South does not arise. We have to get our own share of the national cake…..what we are experiencing now is a confusion as South-West enjoying it and they are the same people clamouring for the presidency in 2023, they should forget it…….
“The organogram of the man in Bourdillon will not work and you know who I’m referring to and we will ensure that the cabal in Lagos does not get it that easy. Power remains in the North until we get our own share before we now begin to consider the South-East that has been marginalised over the years.”https://www.google.com/amp/s/dailypost.ng/2019/05/06/2023-north-will-still-produce-president-tinubu-ruling-nigeria-buhari-arewa-youths/amp/
NURA IMAM’S MAD DOG: A “POSTSCRIPT” POSSIBILITY AGAINST ABIOLA’S PROTEGE;TINUBU?
Chief M.K.O Abiola was in the good books of the vital interests of the core North, until he crossed the red line and started drifting in the direction of the progressives, the drift was a threat to their vital interest and they fired a warning shot, that shot was the “mad dog” affair.
DETAILS: “Mr. Ayodeji Abiola, Chief Abiola’s second son, was less lucky to have been involved in a minor traffic accident with a vehicle driven by Air Force Corporal M. Danjuma near the airport” https://groups.google.com/forum/m/#!topic/soc.culture.nigeria/voWsnOcMxLk
“MKO was involved in the Air Force “mad dogs” saga — a personal humiliation by Air Force other ranks who, AVM Nura Imam then dismissed as “maddogs”.https://www.google.com/amp/s/thenationonlineng.net/the-gore-and-the-glory/amp/
“Regarding civilian involvement, other unconfirmed reports speculate profound displeasure on the part of Chief MKO Abiola, who was alleged to have helped finance the 1983 coup.Abiola not only with the decision of the Buhari regime to seize and auction a large consignment of his newsprint (which had allegedly been smuggled into the country) but also with an inquiry into the possible role of a relative in the drug trade.This, the story alleges, motivated Abiola to financially assist Buhari’s removal.But Abiola was not the only unhappy figure in the private sector, assuming such reports are true.Unconfirmed reports identified other individuals with business interests like Dantata.” http://www.waado.org/NigerDelta/Nigeria_Facts/MilitaryRule/Omoigui/PalaceCoup-1985.htm
VITAL INTEREST OF THE NORTH.
Major-General M. C Alli, on the 143rd page of his 2001, Malthouse press published book, he titled: “The Federal Republic of Nigerian Army The Siege of a Nation” wrote:
“Alhaji Maitama Sule, the Dan Masami of Kano, an eloquent spokesman of the Northern power elite, a Hausa aristocrat, was one-time Nigeria’s Permanent Representative at the United Nations…. Consistent with Alhaji Sule’s conclusions, Northerners therefore insist that the governance of Nigeria should be the exclusive preserve of Hausas or Hausa/Fulani, or Northerners….. Alhaji Maitama Sule, an elder northern leader from the Sir Ahmadu Bello School, has also postulated that by inclination, temperament and administrative skill, Northerners should rule Nigeria as a natural preserve and right.”
Observation 1: The line by Maitama Sule, that “Northerners should rule Nigeria as a natural preserve and right.” is vital interest defined!
Observation 2: This line is the basis of Born to rule.
Observation 3: For all the depth of Southern ignorance by arrogance and arrogance by ignorance, against the “Hausa”, the Hausa as an ethnic group, are not politically responsible for several of those political events the South accuse them of. Hausa is just the lingua franca of the North and it ends there!
Samuel N. Nwabara in his paper: “The Fulani Conquest and Rule of the Hausa Kingdom of Northern Nigeria (1804-1900)” wrote:
“Usuman Dan Fodio…was he who won the rich Hausa land for the FULANI race and thereby established the Fulani hegemony over Northern Nigeria…The Fulani net was so spread that state after state was caught in it, and it is of little wonder therefore, that El-Kanemi, the Bornu Sheikh, described him as an Imperialist under the guise of a religious leader. Thus by the end of 1810, the Fulani hegemony was firmly rooted in the Hausa States, and tributes were paid to Sokoto in slaves, cowries and cloth. Neither was the conquest limited to Hausa States” https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.persee.fr/doc/jafr_0037-9166_1963_num_33_2_1370&ved=2ahUKEwjmspyq95HiAhWRHRQKHRprC44QFjABegQIAhAB&usg=AOvVaw3_omaC0ckk_jm4v4yrLQ5_
Deductions: Maitama Sule, spoke in error when he said Hausa/Fulani; the Fulani conquered the Hausa, Hausa/Fulani is a political fraud, designed to give the Fulani a numerical advantage with the South in view at the expense of the Hausa!
STRATEGIC OBSERVATION: The imperialist expansionism of Usuman Dan Fodio from the perspective of anthropology, or social history of different sociological generations of the same people who sustain their vital interests from one sociological generation to another, held in trust by psychological individuals from different sociological generations of the same vital interest like Usuman Dan Fodio, Ahmadu Bello and now Buhari, is the Grand strategic anthropological basis for the rigging in Port Harcourt by the Army, whose logo is Usuman Dan Fodio motto and is essentially a Northern organization.
Observation: “The Arabic script: The transliteration of the Arabic script on the Nigerian Army logo is: Nasrunminallah which means Victory Comes From God Alone…The motto was formerly that of Shehu Usman Dan Fodio, head of the Sokoto Caliphate.” https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.legit.ng/amp/828203-ever-thought-meaning-nigeria-armys-symbols-check.html
EL-RUFAI’S ADVICE TO AWARA AND THE STRATEGIC IMPLICATION OF “APARA” ON “AWARA”
To prevent a DIYA from becoming a BIYA you need an APARA to compromise an AWARA!
“He was brushed off the throne like a fly off the dressing table.” Frederick Forsyth. That was how Forsyth captured for history, the overthrow of Gowon.
Olufemi Ogunsanwo captured those words of Forsythe, on the 107th page of his 2009, Ikeja, Lagos Pace published biography, he titled:
“General Yakubu Gowon The Supreme Commander”. Then on the 118th page as a footnote, he provided the following insight:
“British author of The Day of the Jackal, Frederick Forsyth, an admirer of Colonel Ojukwu, wrote on the July 29, 1975 coup in The Spectator, London, August 9, 1975.”
Should Awara choose to contest the election in the tribunal and win, a call to ARNARCHY would have been made. Even though PDP can’t claim the tradition of rigging common to both APC and PDP was not deployed in Rivers State.
To avoid being brushed off the throne of the dressing table of Government house Port Harcourt, he needs the Advice of El-rufai on political godfathers and to ensure his hands are clean or an APARA would bid his time against AWARA.
Should Awara cross the red line from being a stooge of the vital interest of the core North, (the strategic reason the army was involved in rigging, but failed) and transform himself to a defender of the vital interest of the South South, which is contrary to the vital interest of the North, he should expect an Apara to compromise Awara.
Strategic question Awara must answer:
Is Awara aware of the intricacies of the internal nature of interest as deployed by the core North to sustain their vital interest on an anthropological basis, the way the core North has deployed it against the South West from Afonja to Banire?
Dapo Apara, was the boss of Alpha Beta, (as we saw in the preceding part, who has documented evidence against Tinubu) He petitioned EFCC, about his PRINCIPAL, Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
To secure vital interests by clandestine means of covert politics, an “APARA is the weed; the “cancerous growth” that grows with an AWARA!
The covert, clandestine, age old covert rule darkness uses to attain power to secure vital and indeed vested interest is simple:
To prevent a DIYA from becoming a BIYA you need an APARA to compromise an AWARA!
If the principle could work against Awolowo (with a huge sphere of influence and a huge Critical Support Network; as Max Siollun would put it) against whom there was no evidence, who is Awara not to expect an Apara?
(A deputy normally takes over from his boss. Lieutenant- General Donaldson Oladipo Diya was Abacha’s deputy implicated in a coup. When Abacha died, he was under arrest on charges of a coup, Abdulsalami Abubakar took over, foreclosing Diya’s chances becoming “Biya”. Paul Biya is President of Cameroon)
An opinion piece by Amaso Jack. Jack is a political strategist and analyst, he lectures at Nigerian Institute of Journalism, Lagos State.
The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and not of Naija News.