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Has Nigerian Government Defeated Boko Haram?

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Boko Haram

Nigeria President, Muhammadu Buhari says his government has put Boko Haram activities under control since he took over the leadership of the country in 2015.

But his political opponents do not agree with his claim. They claim that recently the situation has become worse considering the number of attacks and kidnapping by the group

Conflicting Claims

Nigeria former President, Olusegun Obasanjo, who supports the main opposition candidate, Atiku Abubakar, has criticised President Muhammadu Buhari record on how he deals with Boko Haram.

“The security situation has become worse with kidnapping everywhere,” Obasanjo said in January.

But what President Buhari thinks about the security situation is very different. He believes that his government has destroyed the terrorist stronghold in Borno State.

So what are the facts that are available concerning both the attacks against civilians and on kidnappings?

Has Boko Haram Attack Has Truly Reduced?

Insecurity and poor communications in villages have made it difficult for both government and other organisations to look into the situation and they don’t report several attacks.

Nigerian National Bureau of Statistics provides public access to economic, social and general security information that they gather within Nigeria but they don’t gather information about the activities of Boko Haram.

But research by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) tracks information through the monitoring of local media and other reports.

From 5,000 casualties in 2015, the people killed by Boko Haram insurgents has reduced to below 1,000 a year in the past three years.

This reduction was achieved after the Nigerian government trough the military rolled out a new campaign against Boko Haram and they recaptured large areas that Boko Haram controlled.

So, President Buhari is right to say the killings by the terrorist group has reduced drastically since he took over in 2015.

But all the attacks are not over as some attacks were recorded in the early weeks of 2019.

What About Kidnapping?

The Nigeria Security Tracker that the Council of Foreign Relations (CFR), in Washington, use monitors kidnappings through local media reports.

This reveals that the number of kidnapping increased in 2014 and 2015 when Boko Haram had a strong hold on the north-east.
Despite the fact that the number of kidnappings reduced in 2016, the level has risen since then, with 310 reported last year.

Kidnappings Happening Everywhere?

If you look at the way kidnapping happens across Nigeria, it is not only prevalent in Boko Haram ravaged north-east of the country.
Kidnappings also happen in the Niger Delta region – but this has no connection with Boko Haram.

A careful check reveals that Boko Haram attack in north-east of Nigeria has reduced.

But as the attacks have reduced, kidnappings have increased though it is not clear whether the groups’ decision to launch soft target attack is as a result of its weakness.